When expectations move before prices do
Public prediction markets price what a crowd expects to happen. When that expectation shifts and the asset it should affect has not moved yet, that gap is worth looking at.
The odds are the measurement, not the trade
Prediction Edge reads public odds from venues like Kalshi and Polymarket. It never tells you to take a position on one of them. A signal is always about a tradeable asset — an index, a currency pair, a metal, an energy contract — because that is what you can act on in your own brokerage account.
"Hold expectations moved 18 points in a day and EUR/USD has not repriced" is the shape of a signal. The venue supplied the reading; the position is in the asset.
Two things it looks for
A shift — expectations moved sharply over a short window, and the asset has not followed.
A gap — expectations and market pricing disagree about the same event, and have for long enough that it is not noise.
Every signal says what would prove it wrong
An event-driven signal has a natural end: the decision lands, and the premise is spent whether or not the price moved. Each one carries its invalidation explicitly — the odds level that would void it, and the event after which it no longer applies — written before the outcome is known.
Compoyo never executes trades. A signal is information; you act on it in your own brokerage account.